Ohio State +3.5 3.3% play
Ohio State 9 point favorite and 6.5 point favorite have moved all the way to a 3.5 point under dog which is a 10 point move in 2 years. What has Ohio State done to deserve that type of move? They have gone undefeated this year. Of course they are doing it a different way than in the past, and that is with their defense. I like the fact that the running game is healthy going into this game, and Ohio State has been tested on the road in the game against Notre Dame, which honestly could have gone either way, but they are coming into this game better than they were going into the Notre Dame game because of that experience.
For Michigan, what is different that is giving them a 10 point line move here? They are also undefeated, and have dominated Ohio State the last two years, but they are without Jim Harbough’s leadership on the sideline. The team has rallied in recent weeks, but we have seem struggles against Maryland, and JJ McCarthy’s reluctance to throw. The Michigan team has faced a far less schedule when you look at Michigan their average opponent has a YPP differential of -0.23, while Ohio State has better ypp vs. a tougher opponent +0.34. The average opponent success rate for Michigan is 74.13, while Ohio State is 60.14th in the county. This year’s Michigan team is identical to last year’s Michigan team. The numbers of the players with the exception of their HC on the sideline. I think Ohio State has planned for it, and while Ohio State’s #’s are similar too the biggest difference is their defense. Last year ranked 43rd in QB rating defense, this year #1. Their overall success defense ranks 7th against a tough opposing schedule of SR defenses ranked 58th on average last year they were 4th, but vs. 80th ranked. Their 3rd down defense is #2, and their rushing success rate defense ranks 8th. I think Ohio State’s defense is much more equipped to deal with Michigan’s offense than they were in year’s past and statistically there has not been as much drop off with Ohio State’s offense
