Kentucky +8 2.2% play
Kentucky has faced a far tougher schedule the fact will be are they motivated here at all against a rival they have beaten 4 straight times, while Louisville wants this game to keep things rolling into the ACC Championship. Jeff Brohm knows how important this game is, but he knows it won’t be easy. While the ACC has actually gone 4-2 this year against the SEC I still believe this will be a close game. Kentucky has only lost by double digits to 3 top 10 teams, Alabama, Georgia, and Missouri. Is Louisville in that category? I say NO.
Louisville against good run defenses, which Kentucky certainly has ranking 14th in ypc, and 28th in rushing success rate defense. Louisville has struggled to win with margin against teams that are good at stopping the run. Against teams in the top 50 in run defense they have gone 3-1, but their wins have been by 7, 3, and 13 vs. Notre Dame due to +4 TO day. Jack Plummer is ok passing the ball, but he’s not a difference maker much like Devin Leary on the other side of the ball who has very similar #’s. Louisville also very reliant on explosive plays will go up against Kentucky who is 16th in explosive plays allowed. Against top 50 explosive play allowed defenses Louisville has average 4 points less, against top 25 in 3 games they have averaged 6 points less than their season average.
