San Jose -1.5 4.4* Mountain West Game of the Month
San Jose State comes into the game off their second bye week of the young season. That's a big advantage especailly this week with Wyoming playing last Saturday night or early Sunday in Hawaii. Having to fly all the way back and play a team off a bye is a major disadvantage for a team that is struggling. Wyoming has been decent passing the ball ranked in the top 75 in QB Rating and pass completion %, but have struggled to run the ball and now they face San Jose State who is 2nd in opponent completion % and 1st in opponent QB rating. San Jose has allowed only 1 passing TD and held Auburn on the road to 56% completion % and were only -174 yards and held the ball for 35 minutes of the game. San Jose's offense will get a chance to get both the running and passing game going when you consider Wyoming's defense is 101st in yards/play allowed and ranked 104th vs. the run and 110th vs. the pass.
San Jose has advantages on third down allowing 35% conversions compared with Wyoming 49%. Wyoming has a couple of wins at home against Air Force and Florida Atlantic, but San Jose is just a bit better and has more speed than both of those teams.
Arkansas is a desperate team here looking for a win in the SEC for the first time in 16 games. They keep inching closer and closer and really out played Alabama at home last week, but an extra point miss kept them from winning this game or forcing OT. Georgia meanwhile went on the road and flat out dominated Missouri 34-0, but they were not as good as that score indicates while Missouri turned the ball over 5 times. MIssouri's defense was on the field for 42 minutes, yet they still held Georgia under 400 yards and Georgia never had an offensive play over 18 yards. Meanwhile Arkansas under rated defense just got done holding Alabama to 227 yards.
Georgia's defense has been the story along with the running game, but when you look at it Georgia's defense has faced all of the weak teams in the SEC when it comes to offense. They've faced only 1 team all year ranked in the top 50 in yards per play offense and they lost on the road to them 38-35 to South Carolina, a team that is not as good as Arkansas. The other teams ranked 89th, 113th, 116th, 98th, and 97th in yards per play offense so I'm thinking this Georgia defense is not as good as they looked last week they almost certainly can not expect Arkansas to turnt he ball over 5 times. Arkansas arguably is the first balanced offense that Georgia has faced all year. Yes, Arkansas will run the ball 62% of the time and try to shorten the game, but Brandon Allen is healthy and has 10 TD and just 2 interceptions and they utilize their TE's who very hard to guard very well. IF Georgia's schedule was based off last year's team then we'd be telling a different story, but all three big games - Clemson, MIssouri, and South Carolina look like completely different teams.
The SEC West is undefeated against the SEC East. Arkansas defense that has struggled has faced 5 top 60 offenses and 4 in the top 30, 3 int he top 15. Now Georgia is a one dimensional offense and Arkansas just got done shutting down Alabama's running game. Todd Gurley is looking like he'll play and that has pushed this line up to +4 in some places and I couldn't help but jump on it as I think Arkansas is poised to win this game outright. Georgia isn't as good and Arkansas continues to be under rated. Look for the running game to keep it going while they convert third downs and keep the chains moving while Korliss Marshall makes plays in special teams to set up their first win in their last 16 tries in the SEC.
