Arkansas +4.5 5% play / Arkansas +170 0.5% bonus
Arkansas has had a gauntlet schedule before their bye. They had 4 road games against LSU, A&M, Ole Miss, Alabama, then a home game against Miss State where they just had nothing left. Now they have a bye where they fired their offensive coordinator and a favorable match up against a Florida team that is in a major sandwich spot following the Georgia game and LSU on deck. Arkansas has 4 winnable games if they get this one they could run the table to 6-6 and get into a bowl game.
Arkansas needs to run the ball to win games, and they have a veteran QB that is excellent in the red zone where Arkansas will have a major advantage on Saturday. They’ll face a run defense that ranks 99th in ypc defense. Over the past two years Arkansas when facing a run defense that’s not in the top 75 have only lost 1 game out of 9 by more than 4, and it was by 7, and they were able to put up an average of 35.2 points per game. Arkansas also a team that does not turn the ball over ranking 19th in OTO % which should keep them in this game no matter what on the road.
Florida is certainly capable of winning this game, but the games that this team won big were games they were able to run the ball over 180 yards. The Tennessee game was most impressive, but that was a night game, and they will have their hands full against Arkansas who ranks top 50 in ypc defense and rushing success defense, and rank 46% in TD percentage allowed. Florida’s offense is hit or miss and they rely on long drives ranking 92nd in explosive defense I think Arkansas will be able to keep it within this number with a chance for an outright upset. Sam Pittman also 16-7 ATS as an underdog his team will fight for him here.
