Syracuse +3 2.2% play
Two teams seem to be heading in opposite directions, but I’d rather take the team with losses after a bye than the team who got some confidence, maybe too much confidence with 2 wins out of their last 3. Virginia Tech’s last two wins at home over Pitt and Wake is the reason they are favorites in this spot, but when you look at the schedule Syracuse has faced the tougher schedule and it’s no surprise that they lost to the top 3 teams in the ACC in Clemson, North Carolina and FSU. I also think Virginia Tech got Pitt, FSU, and Wake Forest at the right time. Both Wake and FSU were coming off the games against Clemson, and Pitt was the week after North Carolina and week before Louisville.
The match up favors Syracus who features a running QB, something Virginia Tech had trouble with against Rutgers. Syracuse is better running the ball and stopping the run. They are better in the red zone +17% compared to -20%, and are better at taking care of the ball as Virginia Tech ranks 99th in % of possessions ending in a turnover. I expect this to be a close game, but Virginia Tech’s offense is not one that scares me ranking 115th in third down conversions, 93rd in success, 100th in passing success rate, and their run defense ranks 119th in rushing success rate allowed. Syracuse is averaging nearly 2 more yards per carry in their wins and allowing 2 yards less, and they have the advantage her as far as rushing success rate and rushing success rate allowed.
