I'll Take Troy here as they are not as bad as their 53-14 loss agaisnt App State, but on paper if you look real quick the public will hammer South Alabama because of this. Their 53-14 loss at home was worse because South Alabama won 47-21 on the road against App State, but App State was able to move the ball just fine on South Alabama. The difference in both of those games was turnovers and I'll use that to our advantage, becasue I don't think South Alabama is as good as what the line is saying.
First of all this is an instate rivalry and South Alabama has 2 games coming up next against Arkansas State and La Lafayette which will determine their fate in the Sun Belt Conference. I see them peaking ahead given the fact that the players will simply over look this team. Troy's run defense has been hit or miss, but it's worth noting they have come up with some decent performances.. For instance they held Duke a very good running team under their season average. It's worth noting Duke has been a one dimensional team which leaves me to believe that Troy can play decent defense against a team that can't throw the ball. South Alabama can not throw the ball and their QB is only completing 51.4% of his passes compared with Troy's QB Brandon Silvers completing 68.7%.
South Alabama will rely on their running game, but they just lost thier star RB Jay Jones toa season ending injury and their rushing offense has only out rushed what their opponent was giving up once this season and that was to Georgia State who is worse in run defense then Troy and they still only beat them by 3 points. At the end of the day this could be another lousy team going on the road only to get beat, but they are playing for a good head coach who will be retiring against an in state rival who is looking ahead to more important games. I'll take the greater than 2 TD spread.
