Navy +10.5 3.3% play
Air Force has one three straight match ups, but I think this is Navy’s best chance over that time period to pull an upset win. Air Force’s starting QB Larrier is doubtful, and Air Force just played a very physical game against Wyoming. Jensen Jones who came in for Larrier fumbled on his first two possessions, and that’s the one thing that can not happen in a game with limited possessions. Navy has really taken care of the ball this year and have been able to force turnovers as well. They rank top 20 in to % and forcing to % per possessions
Navy had an easy victory over Charlotte a week ago, and facing triple revenge I think they have a max effort here at home where they always seem to play very well. Air Force stats look very good, but it has come against a very weak schedule, and their #1 third down offense will be challenged this week against a Navy defense that ranks 19th in third down defense, and knows a thing or two about defending this type of offense. Both teams play slowest in the country, and have not had many explosive plays ranking 100th (Navy), and 126th for Air Force. So a game with limited possessions, Air Force’s QB being doubtful, and navy having a ton of revenge, and the easier game a week ago, and home I think the value is clearly on them.
