Oklahoma +5.5 3.3% play

Texas is getting a lot of the early action with 80% tickets and $, but the spread has actually dropped and gone the other way.  To me these teams seem pretty even to me, and there are more red flags on the Texas side.  First off they won 49-0 last year, but that was an Oklahoma team battling major injuries and in the first year of Brent Venables scheme, which was a complete culture shift.  Oklahoma’s defense looks like they have really turned the corner.

Texas red flags to me are the fact that their offense ranks 46th on third down against an average opponent third down defense ranking 82.6.  They rank 27th in ypc, but that has come against an average 83.2 ypc defense, and with garbage time eliminated they rank 86th in rushing success rate.  Texas also has not faced a team yet that will push the pace as their average opponent pace is 90th, while Oklahoma ranks 33rd in seconds per play and Texas is 128th in explosive defense.  Texas beat Alabama, they beat Oklahoma last year 49-0, and this is their chance to really get confident and say Texas is back, but I think Oklahoma is just the better team when it comes to 3rd downs, turnovers, and red zone.