Lafayette +7 2.2% play
I certainly do not trust Dana Holgorsen in a bowl game he’s 2-7 ATS, but for some reason they are favored by more than a TD. Houston has the better YPP differential, but vs. a weaker schedule, and the Sun Belt has been performing well in bowl season. Houston will have Nathaniel Dell for the bowl game at WR, but how much effort, or how much of the game is he going to play? Lafayette has some opt outs as well, but Houston’s defense has not been good all season and have given up an average of 30.6 points per game against teams outside the top 75 in yards per play. Houston is going to give up some points here.
Lafayette’s defense I think can keep them in this game. They rank 22nd in QB rating defense, 50th in ypc allowed, and Houston has only faced 4 teams in the top 90 in QB rating defense they went 2-2 against those teams and the two wins came by 1 and 2 points. The only time they faced a top 50 pass defense they lost at home by 3. Lafayette has gone 0-4 against top 60 passing offenses, but 3 of those 4 losses were by 4, 3, and 6 points, with the lone blowout loss coming against a Power 5 foe in Florida State.
