Air Force +3.5 2.2% play

We will find out real quick who wants to be here, as it’s going to be 20 degrees with 20 mph winds in Fort Worth.  One thing is for sure the service academies always get up to play Power 5 schools and bowl games. I can’t say for sure if Baylor is motivated for this game after a disappointing season going 6-6, and playing in their state of Texas at TCU’s stadium is nothing to get excited about. Dave Aranda also fired the DC and special teams coordinator, which is not ideal to be short handed going up against the triple option.  To make matters worse Baylor lineman Mazzcua who started 11 games and is 330lb is in the transfer portal and will miss.  Air Force had a weak schedule, and their glaring weakness is in pass coverage, but I question whether or not Baylor will be able to pass consistently in this weather and they still at the heart of it are a run first team anyway, which Air Force ranks 19^th in ypc defense, and 55^th in epa defense.  Baylors run defense is good from a ypc perspective, but they went 1-4 when giving up 150 yards, and they 2-4 vs. top 50 rushing attacks giving up 30.33 ppg in those games and 1 of the 2 wins was by only 3 points.  I really have these two teams about even, and we are getting over a field goal in a low total with bad wind that will favor Air Force’s style, and they have a far better special teams unit as well.