Browns +6 2.2% play 

Bengals are 26th in EPA run defense, and are 2-4 vs. top 10 rushing offenses.  Browns rank 6th in epa run offense, and Watson should look a lot better in his second start.  Bengals off a huge win against the Chiefs to solidify their playoff run last year.  This is a bit of a let down spot, while the Browns probably feel like they still have a shot to make the playoffs and have owned the Bengals winning 8 of their last 9.  I think this divisional game comes down to a field goal.