Kansas State is probably the most challenging opponent to date for TCU and I just think 6 points is too much. Kansas State does everything well they are a disciplined balanced team that nearly beat Auburn at home and probably should have beaten Auburn at home. To me the better defense will win this game and Kansas State is more equiped to stop the run. TCU has allowed 3 teams to reach 30+ points while Kansas State has only allowed 1. TCU's two closest games against Oklahoma and their loss against Baylor were games where they were held under 4 yards per carry. Kansas State is 8th in the nation in run defense allowing opponents to rush for 3.1 ypc.
Kansas State doesn't just get it done in run defense they have faced 6 QB's from power 5 conferences and have allowed just 8 TD passes and 9 INT's with only 6 gains over 25 yards. They also have held multiple mobile QB's like Boykin in check in fact QB's have averaged just 2.34 ypc. Kansas State's offense is under rated their QB Jake Waters is efficient and has next level WR that are falling under the radar especially Tyler Lockett who is going to be difficult to guard for Kevin White. Kansas State does not turn the ball over and that's something TCU has relied on to get big wins. Kansas State has turned it over just 7 times all year while TCU has forced 26. TCU's run defense will be challenged in Kansas State's only loss they were held under 100 yards rushing, but TCU is allowing 3.90 yards per carry in conference play. Kansas State should be able to pick up yardage and create third and short. They are converting 49% of their third downs on the season and in conference play. That goes along with their 73% TD percentage in the red zone which will be hard for TCU to defend.
Both teams come off a bye for this highly anticipated match up. For me this match up is pretty easy as both teams are going to try to runt he ball before they pass. Alabama is more equiped to do it and stop it. LSU is a young team and they are getting credit for their win against Ole MIss who is more of a finesse team, and their 34-29 loss against Miss State. Alabama is angry they are not in the top 4 and they have had 2 weeks to think about it. Expect a big win for them and LSU is definitely suspect to that type of a loss because they are extremely young. We saw them get behind Wisconsin (very similar style to Alabama) 24-7, and Miss State (very similar style to Alabama) 31-10 and they lost to Auburn 41-7 on the road. Alabama will get up and they won't look back in my opinion.
LSU is 94th in yards per carry defense. Against Auburn, MIss State and Wisconsin who are all similar in rushing to Alabama, LSU allowed over 6 yards per carry and ran for less than 4 yards per carry themselves. Alabama is the better run defense 3rd in the country, and has the better passing game to balance it out. Crimson Tide's QB Blake Simms has a 172 QB rating, 15 TD/ 3 INT and is averaging 10.2 yards per passing attempt. Amari Cooper will not allow LSU to try to stop the run and this pass defense that has been solid is vulnerable to big passing plays. Against Miss State and Auburn they allowed 11 plays for over 20 yards and that's something that shows up in the tape for Nick Saban. LSU does not have to worry as much about LSU passing it since they run it 67% of the time behind a veteran offensive line. Alabama though is the best run defense this group has faced and I already mentioned how they struggled against Wisconsin, Auburn and Miss State rushing for <4 ypc and 150 yards in all 3.
This is my play of the day. A lot is on the line here for both teams and the Big Ten. I think it could come down to a field goal for Michigan State who has shown issues late in games against Oregon and Nebraska. However, I like their chances here at home. Again similar to the LSU/Alabama match up both teams want to establish the run as they are both in the top 20 in rushing play % at over 60%. Both teams are capable of stopping and running the ball which I will get to in a second. Before looking at that you have to see if either team can have any sort of balance with their passing game to keep a defense honest and Michigan State has the better chance.
Connor Cook and the offensive line is very much under rated. He's got a 163 QB rating and does not make mistakes. The offensive line is ranked 7th in pass protection and he's only been sacked 1.1% of his drop backs at home. Ohio State can't claim the same ranking 84th in pass protection, but allowing a whopping 12.12% sacked % on the road which should have MIchigan State's defense licking their chops as they rank 8th in pass rush. Now JT Barret has looked great this season, but against who? The two decent defenses he's faced he's struggled with 2 TD passes and 5 INT's and the offense put up 17 pts and 21 pts in regulation against Penn State and VA Tech. The loss to VA TEch looks worse and worse considering how they have played since and that defense is not stopping the run any more.
Speaking of the run.. On paper Ohio State is ranked 18th in run defense and Michigan State is ranked 30th, but the Spartans have faced 6 teams in the top 60, 4 of which are in the top 25. Ohio State meanwhile just 2 in the top 75. So the numbers are way off and Ohio State's home/away splits are about 1 yard worse on both sides. Michigan State's rushing game is also better ranking 18th at 5.5 yards per carry and have faced 3 teams ranked in the top 60 rushing defense. For Ohio State they rank 23rd, but only 1 opponent in the top 60 in rushing defense which was Penn State. Ohio State managed just 293 yards in 2 OT's vs. the Nittany Lions. The other opponents are an average 94th vs. the run.
Not to be taken for granted is the fact that Mich State has an extra week to prepare and were 3-0 in that scenario last year. They also have arguably the nation's best punter in Mike Sadler.
