Ohio +3.5 1.1% Free Play
Ohio lost their QB in the last game but had no problems putting up points in their last game. They have played several top defenses in the MAC this year and put up 37 points on Miami Ohio, and 32 against Ball State. Toledo is an under achieving team under Jason Candle who was favored in 11 games this season, but only won 7. He’s had multiple games where they were 7+ favorites and lost outright. To me this game will come down to turnovers as Toledo 1-5 when they turn the ball over more than 1 time. Well, Ohio one of the best at forcing turnovers in fact they have forced 18 in 6 gams when facing a bottom 50 offense in % offensive possessions ending in a turnover, and Toledo ranks 119th. On the flip side Toledo has 18 turnovers in 6 games when facing a top 50 defense in % of turnovers forced per possession, and Ohio ranks 9th. Toledo’s QB room also not healthy and banged up and I think will make at least 2 mistakes in this game. Toledo’s defense probably not as good as their 23rd ypp ranking considering they have faced an average offense ranking 90.18.
