USC -135 4% PAC 12 Championship play
Utah backed themselves into this PAC 12 Championship game, and USC has a huge opportunity to get the PAC 12 back to the College Football playoff. Are the refs going to be very kind to USC here in this game? Either way Utah by the #'s just aren't the same team as last year where they were +1.5 yards per play vs. an opponent average diff +0.83. This year they are only +0.7 vs. a weaker schedule of opponent -0.1. Despite USC's defense they are actually +1.2.
Utah beat USC at home winning on a 2 point conversion, but a lot had to go right for Utah to win that game. Rising was nearly perfect and set records for a Utah QB throwing for 415 yards, many to his TE Kinkaid who had 16 receptions. Kinkaid banged up for this game, and Rising has had some issues in games with his knee. Can he make it through this game? They will also be without Tavion Thompson who was their bell cow back. USC also lost their starting RB so it's a wash. Both defenses have struggled vs. the run and have improved since. USC really improved in their last two games against UCLA and Notre Dame.
Utah has struggled on the road this year losing to UCLA, Oregon, and Florida. Rising play on the road has suffered he has 6 TD and 6 INT vs. 16/1 at home. I also think the dome in Vegas caters more to USC's athletes and play style.
TO luck? I keep hearing USC's turnover luck is going to end, but is it? At what point is it NOT LUCK. They are #1 in forcing and limiting turnovers. Utah has had turnover issues this year ranking 82nd in % of their offensive possessions ending in a TO. With all the new RB's coming and going I would worry about Utah's ability to hold onto the ball here. I think USC can win the TO battle yet again as Utah has turned it over 9x in 6 road games. USC has 4 lost turnovers ALL SEASON.
Probably my favorite reason here is Lincoln Riley who is used to seeing the same opponent multiple times in the same season. Whittingham di in 2018, and 2021, with similar results in both games losing to Washington twice in 2018, and beating Oregon twice last year. Riley's teams have improved their scoring margin in all 4 times Oklahoma faced that opponent a second time in the Big 12 Championship with an average +9.5 point advantage which gives us the cover here. I also think USC has a chip on their shoulder and a point to prove, and getting revenge for their only loss on the season will be the icing on the cake.
