Kentucky -144 3.5% play
Kentucky fully motivated at home against Louisville here looking to avoid a 3 game losing streak overall and at home. They want to get to a better bowl game, Will Levis needs to have a good game against a good defense, and I think he’s fully capable. I still value the SEC over most conferences, but definitely over the ACC, which is only 5-14 vs. the SEC -10.1ppg since 2020. Louisville just has not been a good road team under Satterfield. They are 2-3 this season with losses at BC, Syracuse and Clemson. They’re 6-13 over the last 4 years.
Micale Cunningham is likely to go in this game and Kentucky will have to stop him from taking the game over. I think they can do that against Florida’s Anthony Richardson they held him to 4 rushing yards, which is still his season low and held Tennessee’s Hendon Hooker to 23 yards on 10 carries and Missouri’s Brady Cook to 17 yards. All 3 of those guys are 500+ yard rushers. In his last two games against Kentucky Cunningham has 22 carries for only 62 yards. I think we are getting value here because Kentucky has lost two in a row including a game against Vanderbilt. Kentucky was clearly looking ahead to their home game against Georgia in that Vanderbilt game. The reason I’m playing the money line is I feel it offers more value in a game that should be tight. Kentucky for whatever reason doesn’t want to let Levis go, and continues to run the ball even though they are not good at it. They also rank 129th in seconds per play so possessions will be limited
