Wisconsin -3 -115 4% play

Wisconsin not having their typical season, but Jim Leonard has a chance to win the Battle of the Axe game and secure the HC job.  This Wisconsin team has struggled on the road this season going just 2-3, and suddenly their 1 point escape at Nebraska looks a bit better as Nebraska upset Iowa on the road last night.  Wisconsin has won games when they win the passing game.  Graham Mertz has had a decent season 19-9 TD to INT ratio, but 12-2 in Wisconsin’s wins.  He has to have a good game here, and I believe he will against a tough defense.  While Minnesota is defense has been stout, I think there is a bit of noise in their #’s.  When you look at their top 25 run defense it has faced an average epa run offense ranking 100th.  Their 59th epa pass defense has faced an average 88.6 pass offense.  Their defense lacks an ability to get pressure on the QB ranking 87th in sack rate, but even worse on the road ranking 109th with a 3.94% sack rate and they rank 119th on passing down sack rate.

For Minnesota’s offense they are completely one dimensional running nearly 70% of the time.  They are very good at running the ball, but Wisconsin is 25th in 1st down defense, they are 3rd against the run in ypc, and 7th in epa.  This is a solid run defense, and they are even better at home.  Minnesota’s rushing attack is -1.2 ypc on the road vs. home, and their run defense is -1.04 ypc on the road and home.  Really easy to handicap Minnesota football their 4 losses have been against top 50 run defenses.   Purdue ranked 48th, Illinois ranked 12th, Penn State 16th, and Iowa 8th.  Wisconsin is the best of the bunch, and playing at home with motivation for Jim Leonard to retain the job and get the Axe back. 

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