Wisconsin -3 -115 4% play

Wisconsin not having their typical season, but Jim Leonard has a chance to win the Battle of the Axe game and secure the HC job.  This Wisconsin team has struggled on the road this season going just 2-3, and suddenly their 1 point escape at Nebraska looks a bit better as Nebraska upset Iowa on the road last night.  Wisconsin has won games when they win the passing game.  Graham Mertz has had a decent season 19-9 TD to INT ratio, but 12-2 in Wisconsin’s wins.  He has to have a good game here, and I believe he will against a tough defense.  While Minnesota is defense has been stout, I think there is a bit of noise in their #’s.  When you look at their top 25 run defense it has faced an average epa run offense ranking 100^th.  Their 59^th epa pass defense has faced an average 88.6 pass offense.  Their defense lacks an ability to get pressure on the QB ranking 87^th in sack rate, but even worse on the road ranking 109^th with a 3.94% sack rate and they rank 119^th on passing down sack rate.

For Minnesota’s offense they are completely one dimensional running nearly 70% of the time.  They are very good at running the ball, but Wisconsin is 25^th in 1^st down defense, they are 3^rd against the run in ypc, and 7^th in epa.  This is a solid run defense, and they are even better at home.  Minnesota’s rushing attack is -1.2 ypc on the road vs. home, and their run defense is -1.04 ypc on the road and home.  Really easy to handicap Minnesota football their 4 losses have been against top 50 run defenses.   Purdue ranked 48^th, Illinois ranked 12^th, Penn State 16^th, and Iowa 8^th.  Wisconsin is the best of the bunch, and playing at home with motivation for Jim Leonard to retain the job and get the Axe back. 

Where to find Freddy?