Southern Miss -3 3.3% play
Southern Miss is hunting for their 6th win to get bowl eligible, while LA Monroe has 7 losses and won’t be going bowling. You can’t blindly back these, but this is one that I like. I think we are getting some value, because if you just look at recent results, Southern Miss off 3 losses, including a big loss to Georgia State, while Monroe beat Georgia State, but they were -200 yards in that game. Southern Miss other losses came to P5 opponent, 9-1 Coastal, 8-3 Liberty, 9-2 Troy, and 9-2 South Alabama. Monroe sits with 4 wins total and is the worst team Southern Miss has faced.
Southern Miss defense is a bit under appreciated and they’ll be the best unit in this game. They rank 10th in sack %, and will get after Louisiana Monroe’s 121st rank offensive line in pass protection. Southern Miss also top 50 in run defense, and Louisiana Monroe 107th in ypc. Monroe is 1-6 vs. top 60 run defenses this season. Southern Miss also has a top 50 pass defense as they rank 49th in epa pass defense so it could be a long day for Monroe here who has nothing to play for but spoiler. Southern Miss also enjoys an edge in special teams where they rank 33rd compared to Monroe’s 130th ranking. Those will be hidden yards and points. Southern Miss must take care of the ball they rank 127th in to%, but Monroe ranks 123rd in forcing them. In Southern Misses losses they are averaging 3+ turnovers. Monroe has not forced 3 TO’s in a single game this year and since moving to Trey Lowe at QB, Southern Miss only 1 TO.
