California +11 1.1% Free Play
home team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 matchups here. This play is a fade of UCLA that just played their hearts out with a chance to get to the PAC 12 Championship. DTR was crying on the field in his last home game and now they have to go on the road to face Cal as double digit favorites. Cal themselves off a huge win over Stanford for the first time in 2008. This Cal team is not going ot a bowl, but I think the players and coaching staff feels like they are a better team and will love to get a win here.
The match up has some positives for Cal when you look at the fact that their defensive strenght is run defense. They rank 34th in epa run defense, and UCLA has only faced 3 top 50 run defenses all year. in those 3 games they beat South Alabama 32-31 at home, lost to Oregon 30-45, and beat Washington 40-32, none by the margin of 10+ points. Cal is a pass first offense they have talent at WR the issue is they haven't been able to protect the QB at times. I think they will here, as UCLA 73rd in sack rate, and 98th in QB rating defense, they'r e119th in success rate defense. Cal when facing a non top 80 pass defense ewnt 3-3, with only the Oregon loss coming by more than a TD. Still believe in Justin Wilcox and this team is always live as a dog.
