Arkansas -3.5 3.3% play
A lot of people backing Missouri this week simply bc Arkansas has 6 wins and off a big win, and Missouri at 5-6 fighting for a bowl, but Arkansas has plenty to play for here as well. I love that this came down to 3 and show major value on the Arkansas side. Going 7-5 is better than 6-6, and offers more bowl options, this is their DC, Barry Odom return to Missouri, the team that canned him. There is plenty of motivation, and Arkansas really is not a type of team with this coaching staff to look past an opponent.
Missouri has gotten a lot of credit for how close they played Georgia earlier this season. Missouri has only faced 3 teams who are top 50 in passing and running, which Arkansas falls into that category. They went 0-3 in those games losing by 28, 4, and 42 points. I think the fact that KJ Jefferson back is a big deal. This was a fringe top 10 team before he started getting banged up. Missouri as good as the defense has been, and good against the run defense, they have gone 1-5 against teams who are 54% run first teams. Missouri’s defense also has struggled against mobile QB’s losing to Adrian Martinez and Kansas State, Ashford, and Auburn, Hooker and Tennessee and Florida and Richardson. Arkansas also takes care of the ball 24th in % of possessions ending in TO’s compared to Missouri who ranks 104th. Last note for Arkansas defense which has really struggled. Missouri’s offense is not good at all in fact this is the worst offense Arkansas has faced from a YPP perspective all year.
