Tulane +1.5 3.3% play
The winner will host the AAC Championship Game. Two things beat Tulane this year. Giving up a ton of rushing yards, and turning the ball over. Cincinnati really struggles running the ball this year 89th in ypc, 95th in EPA and have struggled more of late. They also could be without their starting QB who is ? for this game and if he does play won’t be 100%. Tulane is 4-0 on the road this year with a very impressive win at Kansas State on their resume, which they should be able to draw confidence from to end Cinci’s 32 game home streak.
Last year’s Cinci team was so much better than this year according to the #’s, and it was a 14-12 game with Tulane at the half. Tulane had 5 turnovers in the game, and I don’t really anticipate that happening this year as they rank 19th in TO%, and Cinci really hasn’t forced turnover like last year as they lost two starting NFL CB’s. Cinci’s offense really could be worse they have faced an average 96.2 ypp offense, and only 2 top 75 ypp defense, with one of them being Miami Ohio. The other one was UCF who they lost 21-25 to. At the end of the day I think Tulane is more balanced team especially on offense as they rank 35th in ypc, and 23rd in QB rating. They rank 42nd in success rate compared to Cinci 88th ranking, and that’s against a tougher group of success rate defenses. Their red zone TD% is +19.19% compared to Cinci -6.98.
