Baylor +8.5 2.2% play
Texas is just 2-4 this season off a straight up win, and I don’t get the love for them in this spot or on the season. Texas has to run the ball to win the game and run it well to win by margin. They have 6ypc in wins and 3.95 in their losses, and the same was true last year. Baylor is a good run defense ranking 41st in epa run defense. Texas just 2-2 vs. top 50 run defenses, one was a win over G5 UTSA, and the other a 3 point win at home to Iowa State.
Texas could win, and get a Kansas State loss and get into the conference championship, but if anything that’s a distraction for this team, while Baylor will be plenty motivated to play spoiler to their in state rival. Baylor is 2-3 vs. top rushing attacks, but they have 1 loss by 6 OT to BYU at elevation earlier in the year. They lost by 1 to TCU, and 28 to Kansas State. Could very easily be 4-1. This has been a good road team all year long +6 TO margin on the road, which makes sense to why they’ve played well. I think they can hang around in this one as Baylor also has a top pass defense ranking 49th, and Ewers has yet to show that he is any type of threat.
