Kent State -2 2.2% play
Let’s talk strength of schedule. Kent State’s road games this year @ Toledo best team in the MAC, @Georgia, @Washignton, @Oklahoma, and at Miami Ohio (better statistically than Bowling Green). Bowling Green at 5-4 wins here and they get to a bowl game for the first time in 7 years, but they do have another opportunity on deck with Ohio, while Kent State at 3-6 does not. This is the game for Kent State, because they need to start getting wins, and looking at Bowling Green’s resume it’s not that impressive. Their wins have been against three 3 win teams in the MAC, a 1-9 Akron team, and a down Marshall team that has a horrible offense and they still gave up 31 points and were +3 TO margin and only won that game by 3.
Kent State surely has a match up advantage with their running game which ranks 51st in ypc, and 42nd in epa going up against Bowling Green’s 99th ranked run defense and 92nd in epa. Bowling Green struggled against the two run first fast paced teams they faced this year giving up 45 and 31 points. The Bowling Green’s defensive strength does not align here as they are excellent vs. the pass ranking 43rd in epa, and have a 12th ranked pass rush, but Kent State fairly good considering the level competition they have faced ranking 64th in sack % allowed, and again Kent State will want to run the ball here, and should have some success. They also have an edge on special teams ranking 26th vs. 79th, and they haven’t turned the ball over much ranking 27th in % of possessions ending in a TO. I’ll take the team that is more desperate for a win that has the extra day of preparation. Sean Lewis is a good coach, and I expect they’ll get a big win here tonight.
