Houston +3.5 2.2% play
Tons of tickets and money on SMU bringing this up over the key # of 3. I actually think Houston is the better team, and they have played in tons of close games already. They really don’t have a bad loss on their schedule, and while their opponents have an average -0.4 ypp, that’s distorted by South Florida’s -1.7, as well as the fact that 6 of their 8 opponents had tough schedules of + opponent yards per play, while SMU who on the surface has faced an average oppy pp +0.62, much tougher than Houston, but those opponents on average have had a very weak schedule. I was not impressed with SMU vs. Cinci, where we got a very lucky back door cover. I think these teams are very similar pass first offenses, with veteran QB’s, but Clayton Tune has been very good on the road, and adds the running dynamic that Mordedai does not. Mordecai also more turnover prone, and coming back from an injury. Houston’s pass defense seems to also be better ranking 36th in epa compared to 83rd for SMU, and they’re better on third downs, and have a slightly better rushing offense, but far better run defense as SMU ranks 124th in EPA run defense to Houston’s 76th ranking.
