Oregon State +4.5 3.3% play
Oregon State has not been a good road team of late, but I think tha'ts why we are getting +4.5, and the bye definitely helps with traveling on the road, and they are helped by the fact that Jonathan Smith their HC is familiar with Washington as he coached here. The Beavers are also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 trips. Oregon State upset Utah last year off their bye.
The weather is going to be a factor with wind and some rain. It clearly benefits Oregon STate who is a 60% run team, and WAshington who is a 60% pass team. It won't be as bad as originally thought, but still shoudl be an advantage for Oregon State.
Oregon STate looks like the better team they are +0.8 ypp vs. -0.22 compared to Washington +0.6 vs. -0.27. So they have the better #'s and against a slightly tougher schedule. The matchup as far as similar opponents and how they did also favors Oregon State. The 3 times they faced a top 50 passing offense, USC, Utah, and Washington State. They lost to USC & Utah, but were -8 to margin in those games. They held Washington STate to 10 points, and USC to 17 points, and only lost that game by 3. Washington against a top 60 pass defense lost to UCLA and Arizona State. They still got their points, but lost the game, and Oregon State's pass defense is the best they have faced. UCLA also was able to run the ball on WAshington who on paper appears to be very good vs. the run ranking 18th in ypc, but looking at EPA run defense they are outside the top 50, and when we take out garbage time they rank 83rd in epa run defense, and that is against an average opponent that ranks 71st. Their pass defense is one of the worst in the PAC 12 ranking 126th in epa.
Oregon State's offensive line #'s are top 30 on average, while Washington's defensive line outside the top 80 in standard down rate, adjsuted line yards, and they rank 97th in 1st down defense, while Oregon STate ranks 23rd in 1st down offense. I think Oregon State can get ahead on the chains and really control this game.
