Iowa +4.5 2.2% play

The weather is definitely not favoring Purdue in this one with 23mph winds, and 40 mph gusts and a 40% chance of rain for a pass first offense.  Iowa has struggled against Jeff Brohm who is 4-1 straight up and 5-0 ATS, but the average spread in those 5 meetings have been Iowa -7, and now Iowa is the dog of greater than a field goal.  This is the role I love to have Iowa in.  Iowa has a top 10 pass defense, and are able to force turnovers ranking 16^th in defensive possessions ending in a TO, while Purdue ranks 131^st in % of offensive possessions ending in a TO.  With the weather for this game it just falls into the hands of what Iowa wants to do.  Purdue also just 11-15 vs. top 50 pass defenses since 2018, while Iowa is 9-5 vs. pass first offenses since 2018.  Only 1 of those games did they lose by more than 4 points. 

Iowa also the better ypp differential if you can believe it they are +0.2 vs. an average opponent diff of +0.62, while Purdue is -0.6 vs. an average opponent +0.5.  Purdue’s defense also very banged up, but this should be a low scoring defensive game that Iowa just waits for Purdue to make a mistake.  I’ll take the Hawkeyes in this one as the road team is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings.