Arkansas -3.5 1.1% Free Play
I believe Bryan Harsin is a dead guy walking here and a bye is not going to save his job. Arkansas is coming in a little under rated even though they are a field goal favorite this was a team that was destined for a top 10 rating before they lost to Texas A&M on a KJ Jefferson fumble that was returned for a TD, making it a 10-14 point swing. The bye certainly helped Arkansas more with KJ Jefferson getting a chance to rest up, and a little bit more time to plan for the road trip to Auburn, a home field advantage that does not necessarily look as strong. Auburn should have lost ot Missouri in OT at home, they got beat badly by Penn State, only beat San Jose State 24-16. Blew a double digit lead to LSU, and last year they lost 3 of 4 home games vs. SEC opponents at home, and that’s why I think Harsin is going to be gone after this season or maybe this game.
Let’s look at the match up as both teams want and need to run the ball to win. Both defenses struggle to stop the run, but Arkansas seems to be a bit better at both, and they have the balance of the passing game with KJ Jefferson, and Auburn’s pass defense has been good, but if their offense can’t stay on the field this Arkansas offense will wear them down. Auburn ranks 121st in defensive ypc, and their offense ranks 108th in third downs. The only time Arkansas defense really struggled vs. the run is when their offense could not stay on the field, and their defense got worn down. They held Alabama in check for 3 quarters until they exploded in the 4th for 300+ yards other than that they’ve been pretty solid. Alabama obviously has the threat of a passing game which is the bigger weakness for this Arkansas defense.
Arkansas is 13th in third down conversions, and I feel like they can control this game on the road with a veteran QB who does not turn the ball over. Arkansas 19th in % of possessions ending in a TO, while Auburn ranks 126th. This is a match up that Arkansas has been dominated in the past, winning 8 of the last 10, but I think that’s something that will motivate this Arkansas team during the bye. How much does Auburn have to gain by beating Arkansas, and how much does this coaching staff care? They likely know they are on their way out, and I just see Arkansas wanting/needing this game more.
