West Virginia +7.5 3.3% play / West Virginia +240 0.3% play
TCU now off 5 straight games that have gone down to the wire with 4 of them being against top 20 opponents, and the 5th being against Sonny Dykes old team, SMU. TCU now goes on the road to face West Virginia in a bit of a let down/sleepy spot, and it’s a spot that TCU has struggled losing 4 straight to West Virginia, and Sonny Dykes 1-10 ATS in his career on the road as a ranked team facing an opponent who is not ranked. TCU has 3 Texas schools on their schedule ahead of this and the players can’t help but not take West Virginia seriously after they got beat by 38 points last week on the road to Texas Tech, but this is a team that has a very good home field advantage, and an early start is not going to help TCU who has gotten off to slow starts at times this season.
TCU defensive weakness is the pass defense. They can’t get to the QB, and they rank 93rd in EPA pass defense, and that is despite knocking 3 starting QB’s out of games. They were able to come back and beat Kansas State, but Kansas State was decimated by injuries in that game and was down to their third string QB at one point. West Virginia is a pass first team, and JT Daniels when given time is a deadly passer. West Virginia ranks 17th in sack % allowed, while TCU 82nd in sack %. I think West Virginia will score some points, and their defense matches up well enough to keep this one within a TD.
TCU’s offense runs the spread, and they want to run first. Their offense has looked amazing so far due to the play of Max Duggan, and the fact that they haven’t played many defenses. Their rushing offense has faced an average run defense ranking 89.5. That’s the one thing that West Virginia is good at stopping the run. Also in his 3 starts vs. West Virginia Max Duggan has struggled big time going 47-91, 549 yards 1 TD and 5 interceptions. This game will go to the wire.
