California +7.5 2.2% play
Cal was in a battle at Notre Dame losing 17-24, they came back home beat Arizona 49-31, then lost b2b road games with a bye in between. The loss against Colorado is particularly head scratching as many believe Colorado to be the worst among Power 5 opponents. Perhaps Cal and Wilcox was looking ahead to his former employer’s meeting with Washington? They went 1-5 in the red zone for TD’s against Colorado. The biggest issue for Cal is the play of their offensive line and that tends to be magnified on the road. Here they come back home, and it’s not like this is the same Washington defense or defensive line as years past. They rank 87th in standard down rate and 89th in stuff rate. Cal just needs to stay out of predictable passing downs, and they should be successful on offense.
Washington’s defense ranks 124th in QB rating defense, 130th in third down defense, and when given time Jack Plummer has been very efficient, and this offense does not lack play makers. That’s why I think they’ll be able to score some points here. Wilcox is 8-3 ATS As a home dog, and his defense is still playing very well and one could argue this is the best defense Washington has faced this season. Washington is also playing in their 3rd road game in the past 4 and go up against a pass defense that has 8 interceptions. I think Cal sticks around in this one and have a shot at the upset. The last 3 meetings have been close, and we are getting some extra value in this one based on recent results.
