Kansas State +3.5 3.3% play
TCU has a top 5 offense form a YPP perspective, but their average opponent ypp defense ranks 102.8, and here they’ll face Kansas State ranking 35th. It’s a big step up in class, and Kansas State which ranks top 10 in epa pass defense will also have 30mph wind gusts in their favor in this game. The windy environment definitely should help Kansas State who runs the ball more at a 62% clip. Adrian Martinez should have a big day, as TCU ranks 90th in standard downs on the defensive line also 121st in power success and 105th in stuff rate. Spencer Sanders had 68 rushing yards an 2TD’s and if he didn’t get banged up in the game I think Oklahoma State probably does not blow a 14 point 4th quarter lead. Oklahoma State also not nearly as good defensively as Kansas State and overall Kansas State has the better statistical profile.
Situationally TCU is in a rough spot as they have been in tight games each of their last 4 weeks. They faced 3 ranked conference foes, and had a rivalry game against SMU, their head coaches previous job. Meanwhile, Kansas State just off the bye, and ready to give a max effort here, and they have edges in the trenches. I don’t know if TCU will be able to take the punches and be able to throw them back late in the game. Both teams play at a slow pace the total has come down 5+ points and I just feel like +3.5 offers tremendous value. I like the way Adrian Martinez is playing right now and the Kansas State coaching staff is very good.
