LSU -130 3% PLAY
LSU is just a different team at home particularly stopping the run where they only gave up 2.98 ypc last year compared to 4.89 on the road. Ole Miss which is relying heavily on the running game 65% of their play calls are runs struggled on the road running the ball 3.63 ypc compared to 5.84 at home. Their QB play as a result struggled last year on the road with a 40 point drop in QB rating. Jaxson Dart is very much inexperienced and has 3TD/3INT on the road this year. Dart also struggled last year and people forget how young this kid is as USC lost his last two road starts as they scored just 16 and 14 points.
LSU has the more experienced QB in Daniels who I feel is going to continue to play better after another week in Brian Kelly’s offense, which is starting to click. The loss and the way the defense played against Tennessee suddenly doesn’t look that bad. I think LSU’s defense is better even though the stats don’t support that completely. They have faced a far tougher schedule of offenses and they have a better success rate defense ranking 40th compared to Ole Miss, and Ole Miss defense has faced an average opponent SR offense of 91.6. Ole Miss should have gotten beat by Kentucky at home, but got lucky with some fumble recoveries late. They struggled to put away a bad Auburn team last week, and Vanderbilt hung around with them far too long. Ole Miss 80th in % of possessions ending in a TO while LSU ranks 14th. LSU also very good in the red zone with a 26.88 red zone TD % differential and that has come against an average opp red zone TD% of +11.65. Ole Miss has been good as weel +24.24 but vs. an average opponent -3.7%. Lastly Brian Kelly as a dog or a favorite under a FG is a very impressive
