South Alabama -3 1.1% Free Play
The winner of this game will likely be the team out of the Sun Belt west. Troy has played the toughter schedule, but South Alabama has the more impressive result losing by only 1 at UCLA now looks quite good. This is also a short week for both teams, but Troy is going on the road while South Alabama was home last game and remains home for this one, which gives them an edge in this one.
I certainly don’t trust Troy’s offensive line on the road. They rank 122nd in ypc, and 116th in sack % allowed, which has led to 106th rank in turnover percentage per offensive drive. South Alabama has a huge edge there as they rank 4th in turning teams over, and that’s just not something you are going to see many people handicap. Predict who wins the turnover battle and predict who wins the game. South Alabama also 20th in rushing ypc, and are decent enough in pass defense ranking 60th in epa pass defense, and overall rank 23rd in success rate defense compared to Troy who ranks 71st.
Troy has a few other red flags here they rank 121st in third down defense and will be going up against South Alabama who is 7th in 3rd down offense. Also South Alabama has the stronger special teams unit and Troy has been very poor in red zone TD% -22.23 differential compared to South Alabama who is +12.63%. Troy was a 5.5 point dog at Western Kentucky and hung on to win, but South Alabama’s #’s are better than Western Kentucky. All in all this is a short enough number to play.
