Utah -3 -115 3.5% play
The Utes should control this game with the running game. USC’s strength of schedule has been horrific when we talk about the defenses and offenses they have faced and it has led to a lot of hype. I’m not at all sold on this USC defense, which has largely benefited from timely turnovers against horrible competition. The average opponent offense ranks 79th in YPP and 83.5 in success rate. Their run defense despite facing an average 87.1 ypc offense ranks 90th in ypc allowed. Utah is a run first team, but is fully capable of beating teams through the arm of Cam Rising. Utah lost two games already this year when their defense did not show up, but those games were on the road, and while USC’s offense has clicked there are some red flags particularly in their road game at Oregon State where Caleb Williams had just 170 yards on 36 attempts. Utah’s defense is better than Oregon State, but their offense is also more balanced than Oregon State, and have a significantly better home field advantage, better coach and more experience. Washington State also held USC under 400 total yards a week ago. Utah’s secondary is the strength of the team ranking 28th in epa pass defense.
USC wins this game and I think they may cruise the rest of the way, but I think Utah is up to the task. Kyle Whittingham lost a player to USC in the offseason and commented several times about his opinion on the new landscape of college football, which was a direct shot at what USC is doing. Will it matter? I don’t know, but I do know that Utah will be max motivated at home, and they have the match up. This game should be more like a TD favorite for Utah, but the fact that they lost a couple of games including last week makes it much closer giving us value. At the end of the day, how confident are you in the fact that USC average opponent run defense ranks 115th, and their average opponent pass offense ranked 98th. The strength of schedules just don’t compare.
