LSU +3 -120 4% PLAY
Taking points with the team coming off a loss, as LSU got behind early to Tennessee, which has been the story for the Vols. Get out early and hold on. There is no shame to falling victim to the same thing most teams do as Heupel 19-2 in his last 21 first half spreads. This week will be a different story, and a good buy low spot on LSU who is 14-5 ATS after an ATS loss. Brian Kelly is 25-16 ATS following a SU loss, and 14-6 ATS in that situation as a dog. Meanwhile, Florida is over achieving at this point and were lucky to get by Missouri last week as a double digit favorite because of a pick six.
LSU has the better defense here. Both teams have played an opponent YPP offense of 55.6 (LSU), AND 57.2 for Florida. Yet LSU ranks 46th in ypp defense compared to Florida’s 98th ranking. The biggest difference between these two defenses is LSU’s ability to stop the run, and running QBS, and Florida’s inability to do that. Florida 113th in defensive ypc, and 115th in epa, and have really struggled vs. mobile QB’s. Cam Rising 7-91, Gerry Bohannon 15-102, and Hendon Hooker 13-112. LSU’s defense ranks 40th in ypc, 32nd in epa, and has held the 3 mobile QB’s they have faced in check, Jordan Travis 8-31, Auburn’s Ashford 11-19, Hooker 10-56. Florida’s offense is very much one dimensional, and I trust Jaydon Daniels a little bit more than Anthony Richardson at this point.
LSU also the better red zone offense/defense, the better 3rd down team, Florida is 125th in third down defense. Florida also 109th in % of possessions ending in TO’s while LSU has taken care of the ball ranking 23rd in that category. Majority of public backing Florida at nearly 70%, based off LSU’s inability to show up against Tennessee. LSU should win this game outright.
