Kentucky +4 5.5% NCAAF POD
Classic buy low sell high situation here as Miss State dominated a good Arkansas team without their QB winning 40-17, while Kentucky lost without their star QB Will Levis as a more than a TD favorite. Arkansas with a backup QB actually had 3 trips into Miss State territory with no points, so that final score was a bit misleading. Kentucky is 18-8-1 ATS in their last 27 home games. They are getting Will Levis back this game, and it will be the third game for Chris Rodriguez at RB, which should make a difference.
Miss State’s air raid offense is tough to defend, but I feel Kentucky can have success. They rank 26th in epa pass defense this is the third year in a row they are seeing it, and the strength of the team is the LB’s. Kentucky also a very good red zone defense, and although they haven’t gotten pressure on the QB this year that has been much different at home where they are top 50. Miss State will move the ball, but Kentucky is 40th in third down stops, and top 25 pass defense overall should be able to slow Miss State enough to cover this #.
Kentucky on the flip side here is still a run first offense despite having issues from their OL. I don’t think that shows up as much at home here and Miss State’s defensive weakness is their defensive line where they rank 107th in adjusted line ayrds, 102nd in standard down, 92nd vs. the run. Kentucky since 2018 is 18-2 straight up when facing a team outside the top 75 in run defense. These are two slow paced teams, and I expect a very tight ball game, but I believe the value is on the Kentucky side as they have also faced the tougher schedule. Kentucky opponents +0.5 ypp differential compared to Miss State -0.51. Kentucky could be undefeated they lost against Ole Miss on a late fumble, and obviously played without Levis against South Carolina this past week. If that were the case wouldn’t they be favored here, but this is the exact spot we like to take Kentucky and Stoops in + the points.
