West Virginia +3.5 3.3% play
73% of action on Baylor here, but I don't think West Virginia is that bad and feel with the new offense they are only going to get better especially coming off extra time to prepare. They are alos playing this at home where they have a very good home field, and have gone 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 at home, and have beaten BAylor 6 straight at home.
The strength of schedule also favors West Virginia, which to me gives them more value, because they are looked at as an inferrior opponents, when in reality it's not as bad as it looks. Baylor's opponent YPP differential checks in at -0.025, while West Virginia is +0.875. That Texas loss, and that Kansas loss are certainly looking better now. Also their opponent success rate defense faced is 28.5 on average compared to Baylor who has faced an average SR defense of 74th.
Some of their statistical profile looks like Oklahoma State, a team Baylor just got beat by. Especially defensively where they are weak vs. the pass, but very good agaisnt the run, which is a good match up for West Virginia. You want to be good against the run vs. Baylor set them up in 3rd and long, where their OL has had issues, and West Virginia has shown an ability to get pressure on QB and get home as they rank top 50 in sack rate. On the flip side Baylor's defensive weakness is vs. the pass. They are excellent vs. the run don't even bother running on them, but against hte pass they rank 83rd in epa, and West Virginia throws the ball more than they run as OC Graham Harrel was a former QB, and JT Daniels is fully capable of taking advantage. West Virginia also has a very big edge on special teams ranking 70th against a far tougher group of special team opponents while Baylor ranks 125th.
