Indiana +22.5 2.2% play
This is a sandwich spot for Michigan after their first road game at Iowa they stay on the road to face Indiana, and have Penn State next. I think Indiana can give them enough issues here as Tom Allen is a good football coach, and knows how to stop a running game. Michigan their last two visits in 2019 and 2020 came up with 87 yards and 13 rushing yards.
We really don’t know much about Michigan at this point. They have faced a very weak schedule with an opponent ypp diff of +1.27 compared to Indiana who has faced a -1.12, which is a massive difference. To put things in perspective the average YPP differential of all 131 teams is -0.03 yards per play. Their wins over Maryland and Iowa don’t exactly impress me, and Indiana is quite comparable to Iowa. Good defense, and a shitty offense. At least Indiana can protect their QB, and at least their QB can throw the ball. Yet we have a spread at 22. 5compared to 10.5 against Iowa. Michigan did cover, but Iowa had a couple opportunities late to cover the spread. Indiana likes to run fast, which could bite them here, but I think it will give them more of an advantage. Michigan likes to sub players in and out, and with Indiana the #1 team as far as pace goes I think Indiana will be able to move the ball and score or get points in the 4th quarter that Iowa could not do.
