LSU +3 2.2% PLAY
We are getting the better defense at home catching points. I think we are getting value here when you factor in LSU barely got by Auburn and had to over come 17-0 defecit, but that was their first road game, and Kelly pulled Jayden Daniels after an injury, but stated that he would have stayed in the game if they were losing. They were also without LG Grrett Dellinger and both returning this week. Daniels has struggled at times this year, but when we look at the fact that he has faced defense ranked on average 46th in ypp defense and now he’ll face a Tennessee defense that ranks 97th in epa pass defense, I think LSU should be able to exploit the secondary of Tennessee especially at home. LSU OL has struggled at times, but they have faced an average opponent sack % ranking 36th, and here they’ll face Tennessee who ranks 85th in sack %. Daniels should get a little more time, and I also think sometimes it helps when you are pulled out of a game and you get to watch. I expect Daniels to have a very big game. Anthony Richards, another mobile spread zone offense QB who couldn’t pass the ball at all threw for 400+ yards against this Tennessee secondary.
This line is giving Tennessee far too much credit, off the bye, and Alabama on deck. Tennessee’s offense has been great and creates a lot of buzz, but they are a run first team and haven’t faced any top defenses. On average they have faced 86.5 ranked ypp defense, and their rushing attack has faced 98th average ypc defense. LSU ranks 25th in ypp, and they rank 13th at stopping the run. You can’t overlook the fact that Hendon Hooker could be without his top target Cedric Tillman who had ankle surgery in the bye week. If he plays I don’t know how effective he will be. Tennessee last year faced 4 top 50 rushing defense and went 1-3 in those games with their lone win being a 3 point victory at Kentucky.
