Air Force / Utah State Over 54.5 3.3% play

We are getting some value on the over here for a couple of reasons.  For one Air Force just played Navy in a 13-10 game, and those games always go under the total.  That game is calculated into the formula that gives us the total, so I believe the formula is a bit misled because of the game against Navy.  Utah State also has had very poor luck in the red zone with a 43% TD%.  They just put up 26 points against BYU a very good defense after being forced to make a QB change.  Utah State plays very fast, and Air Force’s weakness is in the secondary where they rank 125^th in QB Rating.  Utah State’s run defense which will be key here also big weakness as they rank 116^th vs. the run, and gave up 49 points to Air Force a season ago.  Air Force plays extremely slow, but Utah State 15^th in seconds per play will make up for that here, and both teams are bottom 50 in 20+ yard play % allowed.