Iowa +3.5 5.5% NCAAF MAX POD
Clear hangover spot here for Illinois in my opinion. Not only did they upset Wisconsin on the road they got their HC fired, and Brett Bielema who was fired by Wisconsin had to be very happy. Well, how do they come back home now as a favorite, a role they’re not really used to with a hungry Iowa team who will be giving it their all before they go on a bye.
Iowa has all the ingredients of a dog we love. We have the better defense based on strength of schedule. Their offense which is catching a lot of shit has only faced an average ypp defense ranking 19.2, and again they face a top 10 defense right now, but a closer look at Illinois and their defense has faced an average opponent offense ranking 91st in ypp. I understand Iowa ranks 108th, but I have more confidence that they’ll figure it out and Illinois will start to digress.
Honestly, both of these teams are very similar, run first offenses that take their time in pace. 3.5 points for Iowa when the total is 36 points seems like an awful lot. I also love the fact that Iowa has significant edges in categories most people don’t bother to take a look at. Special teams they rank 17th, and Illinois ranks 54th. Penalties, Iowa is top 25 in fewest penalties, while Illinois ranks 106th. Finally, turnovers which is arguably the most important thing to look at when you handicap a game. Turnovers are generally luck, but Iowa seems to have a tendency year in and year out to cause turnovers. They rank 21st in % of opponent’s possessions ending in TO’s, while Illinois ranks 111th on offense turning the ball over 17% of their offensive possessions. Their QB is Tommy Devito who is typically good for 1 or 2 against top defense. They actually played a clean game at Wisconsin, but don’t expect it to happen again here, and their star RB Chase Brown already has 2 fumbles.
One last note, Kirk Ferentz on the road where the spread is single digits, is a cash maker as he has gone 39-24 ATS.
