Auburn +8.5 2.2% play

I understand the near/lucky loss to Missouri at home in OT looks really bad, and a lot of people are calling for Bryan Harsin’s head, but this team is 3-1 and have a night game against LSU that I feel should be competitive.  Auburn has to go with their backup QB Robby Ashford, but I would argue he’s an upgrade over the statue of TJ Finley.  Ashford can at least be mobile to go along with Tank Bigsby.  It won’t be easy, but it’s not like Auburn’s offense has struggled against bad defenses.  All 3 of their opponents are inside the top 30 in ypp defense.  In fact Auburn’s opponents average YPP differential is +1.2, while LSU’s is -0.03.  This is LSU’s first road game, and while their run defense, which is the key here is 14^th, they have done it against an average opponent ypc of 84^th, and they’ve done it all at home.

LSU could be looking ahead to Tennessee or just reading the clippings that Auburn is no good, and I’m not saying Auburn is a good team, but to be an 8 point dog is a buy low spot here.  LSU’s offensive line should not be taken on the road here to cover over a TD.  They rank 111^th in sack % and Daniels may not even stay healthy for this game.  Auburn still plays hard on defense and the DL ranks 33^rd in sack %, and again this is at home, at night.  If Auburn gets blown out then Harsin is probably getting fired, but I think the more likely scenario is Auburn stays in this game. 71% of the action on LSU here, and it’s just not that easy.  Also the total dropped from 50 down to 44.5 in spots yet we have not seen any type of correction on the spread making this +8 even more valuable.