Virginia +3 -120 3.5% play
The story of Virginia is their offense despite returning Brennan Armstrong and his top 3 WR they have really struggled ranking 101st in YPP, 107th in success rate. The reason being their offensive line had to be completely replaced, and their OC left for Syracuse, and they have made many mistakes along the way due to the fact that Armstrong has faced 2nd most pressure in college football at 71, but here they have an extra day of rest and going up against a poor defense in Duke. Duke 107th in sack %, run 4-2-5, and hardly ever blitz, which is a favorable match up for this Virginia offense that is also getting Billy Kemp back this week for another weapon for Armstrong as they go up against Dukes’s 114th ranked epa pass defense. Compare that against Syracuse 35th, and Illinois 2nd , Virginia’s other opponents, and I think Virginia finds some success here.
Virginia’s defense has been a pleasant surprise ranking 33rd in ypp, and 12th in success rate. They’ve been great at getting off the field on third down, and forcing TO’s, while Duke’s offense has been great it has come against an average opponent ypp defense ranking 76th. This is a step up in competition as Virginia ranks 3rd in sack %. Last week was a tough spot for Virginia on a short week and they nearly came all the way back to beat Syracuse. This week they’ll have an extra day of prep and as of right now the weather will not play a role. Virginia also has a significant edge on special teams ranking 47th in overall efficiency compared to Duke’s 119th ranking.
