Texas A&M +4.5 3.3% play
I think these two teams are pretty even, but we have a spread over 4 and yet 68% of the bets are on Miss State here. The Aggies DC Durkin has faced Mike Leach each of the last two seasons, and while they gave up a ton of points they held them to 24 and 21 points as Ole Miss won both of those games. The Aggies lost last year’s game in this sandwich spot 22-26, but held Miss State to 3-10 on third down. That’s exactly what Durkin’s defense did against Miss State each of the last two years holding them to 7-28 on third downs, and holding them to Field goals instead of TD’s.
Miss State’s offensive line is a bit banged up and could have some issues with the talented A&M defensive front that could create some pressure here. They are very young, but can only get better as the season goes on. I think Miss State will move the ball, but Will Rogers and this offense rank 123rd in % of possessions ending in a TO add in the struggles in the red zone vs. Durkin’s defense and I think A&M +4.5 is very attractive.
A&M’s offense has shown some light since putting in Max Johnson, they can only continue to get better despite losing Smith at WR for the season, Achane looks like a guy that can take over a game. Miss State’s defense that runs the 3-3-5 is under sized, and I think A&M will have more success in this game.
A&M has a significant edge on special teams according to footballoutsiders, ranking 4th compared to Miss State 101st ranking. They have revenge as they lost this game at home a season ago 26-22. This is also a very large move on the spread from last year as Miss State +7 now -4.5 at home, that would say that A&M would be only a 1.5 point favorite at home this year. That’s a 5.5 point move in favor of Miss State based off of what? The loss the Aggies had against App State? A&M was also a 4.5 point road favorite just 2 years ago, a move of 9 points. Aggies had #1 recruiting class, and top 10 each of the last 3 years, while Miss State cracked top 25 1x. What has changed?
