Baylor -130 3% play
Baylor has a very under rated home field advantage in my opinion, and I think this is a short line bc Oklahoma State off a bye, and Oklahoma State revenge from Big 12 Title game, but I think those are over rated motivating factors here. The fact of the matter is Oklahoma State is a different team than last year after losing a veteran led defense and their DC. They have had to rely on their offense more this year, which is great when you are facing weak teams. I don’t think the extra time really benefits Oklahoma State here, because this is the 3rd time Baylor is preparing against Oklahoma State in the last 12 months.
Baylor has also been tested in tight games in a road game at BYU, and a road game at Iowa State. I have questions about this Oklahoma State offense led by Spencer Sanders who averaged nearly 2 yards / attempt less on the road last year. Over his 15 career road games he has only faced a top 35 defense 3x, and is 0-3 in those games. He’s clearly developed as a QB, but I still have question marks. Now maybe he proves me wrong here, but I like Baylor with the short # to win. They have played the far tougher schedule with their average opponent ypp at +0.36 compared to Oklahoma State’s -0.8 yet they have put up better overall #’s.
