Iowa State -3 3.3% play
Iowa State is off a very tough loss last week at home to a very good Baylor team. Iowa State now goes on the road to face a 4-0 SU & ATS Kansas team under Lance Leipold that’s getting a lot of hype, but probably too much at this point, which is one reason we are going to back Iowa State here with a short #. This line was just -34 Iowa State a season ago, and they covered by 18 points. These are similar staffs from the sense that Lance Leipold has worked his way up from the D3 ranks just like Matt Campbell, but Iowa State’s program is just a few years ahead. This wont’ be as easy as last year’s cover, but I definitely think we have value on Iowa State here off a loss, Matt Campbell is 19-9-1 ATS with his time at Iowa State.
Kansas offense has clicked but they have yet to face a top 70 ypp defense, and Iowa State ranks 7th. Iowa State’s offense has looked decent, but they still have faced a couple of top 25 ypp defense in Iowa and Baylor, which have deflated their #’s. I think despite losing some veteran guys from last year’s team this offense is still going to score points this year and this is a great opportunity to do so against a defense that ranks 106th in epa run defense, and 111th in epa pass defense. Kansas was down 14 points against West Virginia and Houston, and if that happens again here Iowa State has the team that won’t allow Kansas back into the game.
