Arkansas +2 5.5% NCAAF POD
Just off the top I think we are seeing some value here with Arkansas following their near upset to Missouri State, but they were resting a lot of guys for this upcoming game at Cowboys Stadium, but also Bobby Petrino returned as Missouri State’s head coach so thought there was max motivation for them in that game.
Max Johnson took over at QB for A&M after the loss to App State and it was supposed to spark the offense, but despite their 17-9 win it did not spark the offense as Johnson was just 10-20 for 140 yards. It got us a win and a cover, but I felt like we were very fortunate to cover with A&M last week. Arkansas and Barry Odom prepared for Max Johnson last year when he was at LSU, which led to him being benched in the game so I think that helps here, and I don’t think A&M’s offense is able to take advantage of the clear weakness of Arkansas defense, which is their secondary. A&M ranks 113th in epa pass offense and that has come against some suspect passing defense ranked 77th on average in epa pass defense. A&M needs to run the ball to win games, and Arkansas thus far has been a rock against the run ranking 11th in ypc allowed, and they have been able to get to the QB ranking #1 in sacks.
A&M’s defense has been great and that will be a challenge for Arkansas, but I like Arkansas offensive line here that is very experienced and grading out as a top 5 unit overall. Aggies are talented with 5 star guys across the board, but they have just two upper classmen on their 3 deep on the DL and 8 of the 12 are freshman. Texas A&M also has struggled on defense when they have had to face a team that can beat you throwing the ball and passing the ball, and Arkansas ranks top 30 in both categories, but since Jimbo Fisher has come aboard they are just 1-9 vs. teams who are top 50 in rushing ypc and QB rating. At this point are we really sure Jimbo is a good football coach worth all that money? A&M also just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 in September.
