Notre Dame +2 3.3 %play
Buy low spot here for Notre Dame going up against a 3-0 North Carolina team, and 70% of the tickets are on North Carolina, but I’m not buying the hype. North Carolina’s win against App State certainly looks better, and their nearl loss against Georgia State looks worse, but the team coming off a bye is not a positive when you start 3-0. The bye typically helps, but it has not helped this team under Mack Brown as they have had the bye the last two years against Notre Dame and they lost both games by double digits. They also opened up last season and lost to Virginia Tech as a favorite, and lsot their bowl game to South Carolina by 17 points. In 2019 they also lost both of their games with extra rest losing to Virginia Tech and Pitt.
Getting away from home should be a good thing for the Irish, and I know the win against Cal is not something that has given many confidence, but the offensive line looked great in the second half and Drew Pyne looked better once he settled in, and I actually think Pyne is an upgrade at QB over the injured Tyler Buchner. This is a great opportunity for Notre Dame who ranks 100th in YPP offense, but has gone up against an average 28th ranked ypp defense. Here they face UNC who ranks 111th in ypp defense, and 109th in ypc allowed, which will be a key as Notre Dame needs to establish the run on the road. North Carolina is also 115th in epa pass defense so there will be opportunities for Pyne to open up the run game by passing on first down, which I think we will see a bit of on Saturday.
Notre Dame’s defense is also the best unit North Carolina will face. North Carolina’s offense has looked elite for sure ranking 10th in ypp, but it has come against an average opponent ypp defense ranking 92nd. Drake Maye has been excellent at QB, but he’s faced an average opponent QB defense of 99th. The offensive line also still has issues as they gave up 3 sacks to Georgia State, and 3 sacks to App State. I think Notre Dame’s defensive line here will give them issues. Notre Dame’s defense overall ranks 41st in ypp allowed, and that has come agaisnt a tough schedule that featured Ohio State yet they rank 29th in epa pass defense. Notre Dame’s opponent ypp differential is +1.7 while North Carolina’s opponent ypp differential is -0.25 ypp, which is a huge difference.
