Florida State +4.5 3.3% play
I don't really trust LSU who has a ton of moving parts here with a new staff, new players all over the place going up against a hungry FSU team that wons to kick their season off with a big win. Mike Norvell has FSU ready to get back to a bowl game, and they were close the last two seasons against Brian Kelly's Notre Dame team putitn ugp 26 points and then 38 last year in two tough losses. This game will be played on neutral field, but in Louisiana. However, 30,000 FSU tickets bought shouldn't give LSU a huge home field advantage.
Match up wise I like this, because when Jordan Travis started last year FSU was 5-3 with their losses only by 3 points to Florida, and Notre Dame, and 10 to Clemson. Travis will get back explosve RB Treshaun Ward, and 6 of 7 top receivers. LSU has a very talented defensive line, and a lot of transfers in the secondary, but Norvell has been able to put up points against Kelly's defense the past two years, and this should be his best offense yet.
LSU's offense also a ton of moving parts with transfers including Jaydne Daniels at QB who got worse in his sophomore year at Arizona State. FSU's defnese really started to trend upward and they return 95% of their defense form a year ago. That's a defense that ranke d38th in ypp and 36th in success rate, and were stronger vs. the run, which is important, because I don't really see Jayden Daniels able to consistently beat me passing the ball, and FSU has a very athletic front 4 that can get to the QB against LSU's young offensive line that returns zero starters. LSU struggled to run the ball last year and I'm sure it will improve, but maybe not in week 1 against a FSU team that should take another step forward. All in all I like FSU's trajectory, I'm unsure about LSU's in year 1 under Kelly, and I feel FSU has stronger advantages. Should be a good one, but feel the 4.5 points is a gift.
