Ohio +4.5 2.2% play
Whenever I see Willie Taggart on the road or a favorite I circle the game to look at fading FAU. It's even juicier if he's coming off an impressive performance and that's what we have here as they were very good at home vs. Charlotte. In two years FAU has gone 2-8 on the road under Taggart, and when facing a top 60 ypp defense they have gone 2-9, averaging only 13.4points per game. This is a team that piles up the points against bad defenses to make itself look better and help Taggart keep his job.
You could argue that Ohio falls into the bucket of a bad defense, but typically they are a very good defense, and last year was in my opinion an outlier. They have 17 guys returning with starting experience on defense, and they bringin ina defensive coordinator with success form Miami Ohio, and I think they'll flirt with the top 60. Ohio also a team that wants to run the ball, and FAU was just awful at stopping run, with their home/away splits being even worse. I think Ohio can control the game, and I think they benefit from being able to focus all summer long on this opener while FAU had to focus on Charlotte. The game tape helps as well, and FAU probably riding rather high after that performance, which is also giving us an extra field goal of line value along with 82% of the tickets landing on FAU. Ohio will be a live dog here at home.
