Northwestern +11.5 2.2% play
Any time your see Pat Fitzgerald as an underdog and a double digit underdog you have to take a look. Last year was probably an outlier, and it makes sense they had just 4 starters returning on defense, with a new DC, off a covid year. This year I expect to see a much improved Northwestern team, that has a very experienced OL, and a QB in Ryan Hilinski who could make great strides. This game is played in Ireland, and I expect Northwestern to be the more diciplined team.
Scott Frost tenure at Nebraska has been frustrating, and I understand that 3-9 campaign was the best 3 win team of all time. We benefited from backing Nebraska countless times, but Frost had to clean house to keep his job. I personally don't like to back a team with so many changes early in the season. I'm not sure I'm a fan of Casey Thompson starting at QB. I thought Adrian Martinez really took a lot of the blame for the struggles of this team. He would have the TO's that cost them games, but he also had to carry this offense on his shoulders, led the team in rushing. Casey Thompson has only 10 career starts, not nearly as dynamic as Martinez, and showed struggled in road games, and vs. top defenses. Northwestern's defense should be improved, and the strength is in their secondary. I expect a very close game to start the year here, and when you consider 18-20 were all close games between these two with the spread being 7 or less points, and Northwestern take 2 of those 3, we have line value. Last year's blowout loss should be on Northwestern's mind, and I think that is why we have some line inflation here.
