Titans -3 -125 4% play
Titans will be the healthiest they have ever been all season it seems, and they have the far better coach with an extra week of rest playing at home. The Titans played and beat three very good teams at home, the 49ers, Bills and Chiefs who are all still in the playoffs, but two of those games were wins by exactly 3 points, and 4 of the Bengals 6 losses were by exactly 3 points. I think the Titans are the better team by the numbers and they have faced a tougher schedule.
The Titans blend of opponent epa run and pass defenses faced rank 15.11 on average, while the Bengals have faced an average blend of 20.33. Titans vs. top 15 pass defense went 4-3, but 3-1 at home, and they were 8-2 vs. top 15 run defense, for which the Bengals rank 10th and 14th. They also faced 5 teams in the top 15 in both and went 3-2 in those games. The Bengals on the other hand only faced 6 top pass defenses, went 3-3, and only 5 top run defenses and went 5-0. The Titans rank top 15 in both, and the Bengals have not seen a team all year ranked in the top 15 in both categories. The only comparable measure I see is the fact that the Bengals went 0-3 vs. top 10 success rate defenses scoring only 16, 23, and 16 points.
Let’s move on over to the defensive side of the ball, and again the Titans have faced a slightly tougher schedule 17.02 average blend compared to 17.4. Bengals only have a top 15 passing offense, and the Titans defense has gone 4-2 vs. those teams on the year. The Bengals defense has faced only 5 top 10 15 passing offenses, and went 2-3, and they were just 2-4 vs. top 15 rushing offenses. Titans rank top 15 in both epa pass and run, and while it’s only 14th and 13th you have to factor in time missed by some of their star players like AJ Brown, Julio Jones, and Derrick Henry who are all back for this game. Only 11% of Tannehill’s drop backs this year happened with that trio on the field. Bengals also faced two teams that were top 15 in both categories like the Titans and went 0-2. The closest opponent would be the 49ers who they lost to.
The Bengals also have not handled winning big games this year well. That makes a ton of sense for a team that is young. After their big win against division rival Steelers earlier in the season they got blown out by the Chargers at home the next game. After their first win against the Ravens they lost to the Jets, and then after clinching their division by beating the Chiefs they lost to the Browns to end the season. They just ended a 31 year playoff win drought, and have to go on the road and face a very under rated Titans team.
